Utah is No Favorite Per ESPN FPI
Lo and behold, it’s that time of year again.
The football power index produced by ESPN is back up and in full swing, giving you their top 25, teams most likely to hit six wins, conference champion probabilities and so on among all 136 FBS teams.
If you happen to be a numbers person, it’s got enough content to keep any sports nerd entertained for at least a couple hours.
At the bare minimum the FPI gives fans an understanding of where big media views their favorite football team.
Does the algorithm label them as sneaky underdogs, a team to watch, or think they have missed their window to be competitive altogether?
It may not be accurate come game time, but it can certainly be fun to scoff at, especially for fans of the Utah Utes this year.
Despite many Ute fans having high hopes for year #1 away from the PAC-12 last season, The FPI algorithm carefully calculated that Utah wouldn’t fare as well as many were projecting in their new conference.
And it was unfortunately, kind of right.
Not even the algorithm could have predicted the injuries and circumstances that Utah was dealt, so what seemed like faulty offseason projections a season ago, ended up being better than the real results.
Utah went 5-7 on the 2024 season with all 7 losses coming in Big 12 play whereas the FPI from that same offseason had the Utes at a projected 7.8 wins.
The 2024 FPI said Utah had about a 8.2 % chance of taking home the Big 12 title and placed them as the 5th team in the conference, something even Ute haters had to raise an eyebrow at.
Regardless, they finished 13th in the standings when it was all said and done.
The FPI back in 2024 even gave the Utes a 12.5 % chance to make the brand new football playoff format, something they didn’t come close too.
Back to the present here in 2025, would the FPI calculate that the Utes are healthier and restocked for what should be a much better season than their Big 12 debut?
I mean, yes and no.
The power index put Utah as the 46th best team in their rankings overall.
That has them in front of squads like UCLA, Florida State, Colorado, Boston College and the fighting Bill Belichick’s at North Carolina.
But it also list them behind teams like Wisconsin, Louisville, Minnesota, Illinois and not only one Mountain West team in Boise State but two with UNLV as well.
Being the 46th ranked team in ESPN’s FPI also lands Utah as the tenth best team in the Big 12 per their metrics behind teams like TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech UCF and Iowa State.
The same formula does believe Utah to be better than Colorado, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Houston.
If there’s any consolation for Ute nation, they do have Utah much closer to the best ranking in the Big 12 then they do the bottom despite 9 other teams being in front of them on the power index.
Utah finds themselves only 25 spots behind highest ranked in Kansas State at #21 where they sit 29 spots above the worst rated team in Houston at #75.
Football for nerds gives Utah a projected win total of 6.4 wins for this year and a 67.3 percent chance of appearing in a bowl game.
This seems like a pretty solid bet if you discount last years shortcomings as the Utes had at least 7 or more wins a season from 2014 to 2023. (Not counting you COVID season)
Of course Utah has higher hopes than just returning to the bowl scene, but the FPI isn’t as cooperative there.
Utah’s 10th best odds to win the Big 12 calculate to a 3.1 % chance whereas your three best odds overall belong to K-State (19.9%), Arizona State (13 %) and Kansas (11.3 %).
Once again, if your looking for consolation prizes in these fictional numbers based on “20,000” simulations here’s a good one for ya.
The Big 12 is the most competitively open conference on the power four front as the SEC, Big Ten and ACC all have a team with at least a 34 % chance or greater of winning it all.
So 3.1 percent in a wide open conference isn’t necessarily awful.
Winning the conference would mean a playoff slot, something the FPI gives Utah a 3.7 % chance of making.
That number puts them in the category of teams like Illinois, Iowa, South Florida and… the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns.
If they get there however, ESPN’s super computer isn't keen on a Utah title with a 0.1 % of making the national title game and a 0.0 % chance of capturing it.
It’s pretty clear that the FPI puts Utah as a middle of the pack team similar to a Kentucky or a Wisconsin even rating their schedule as 58th toughest in the land.
But football isn’t played on paper they say, and with months to go before we kick off the 2025 college football season, there’s still reason to hope and believe that the 20,000 simulations ran are total bull.
Especially with all the moves Utah made this off season.
No team is worried about what preseason projection models have to say, and neither are the Utah Utes.
College sports are all about the underdog, the over achiever, the unexpected hero and the Utes will hope to begin fulfilling that role when they travel to Pasadena to take on old foes in UCLA on August 30th.
But until then, one thing is for sure, the analytics aren’t hopping on the Utah train anytime soon, but I for one think they should.
It’s going to be a “prove em wrong” kind of year and Utah seems built for the task.
More From Star 98
